![]() ![]() If the team covers the spread but doesn't win the game, you break-even. If you aren't sure, split your bets and put $50 on the dog to win straight-up and $50 to cover the spread. If they win straight-up, you'll rake in a lot more profits than if you had just bet them to cover the spread. If you like an underdog and think they have a shot at winning the game outright, you might be better off putting that $100 on money-line for your team. This season, consider using the money line to your advantage. How to Use the Moneyline to Your Advantage So, there is an opportunity to do well with the money-line if you can select enough dogs that win straight-up. If you were to pick one hundred 6.5-point underdogs to win straight-up at a money line of +230, you would only need to win about 31% of your bets to break-even. On the 40 winners you would win 60 units (1.5 x 40). On the 60 losses, you would of course lose 60 units (there is no juice on money line bets). In this scenario, you would only need to win 40% of those games to break even. The particular percentage depends on the spread in the games you pick (the higher the spreads, the fewer games you need to win since the money line pays more for higher spread dogs)įor example, let's imagine over the course of the season you were to pick 100 three-point underdogs to win straight-up at a money line of +150. In other words, the team that wins the game doesn't cover the spread only 16% of the time.Īlso, since you win more than you bet when picking dogs with the money line, you have to win a much smaller percentage of your games to break even. The spread only comes into play about 84% of the time in the NFL. Obviously, it is harder to pick underdogs to win straight-up, right? Yes, but maybe not as hard as you initially think. Throw in a third team (say, the Giants at +4.5) and a $100 bet would win $2,169. ![]() For example, if we parlayed Minnesota and Buffalo with the money-line in the above example, a $100 bet would yield $725 in winnings. And, if you combine money-line picks into parlays, you can really hit the jackpot with a small investment. What you may have noticed is that if you can successfully pick underdogs to win straight-up, you can win a lot of money without risking nearly as much. Moneyline Betting Strategies Moneyline Underdogs: Risking a Little to Win a Lot If you can pick a 6.5 point underdog to win straight-up, you would win $230 for a mere $100 bet. The larger numbers reflect the larger spread. If you want to take Minnesota to win straight-up, you would lay $100 to win $150.Įxample 2: Buffalo Bills +6.5 over Green Bay Packersįor the second game, the bookmaker has set the money at -300 for the Pack and +230 for Buffalo. That means that if you want to bet Miami to win straight up, you would need to lay $180 to win $100. Let's look at a couple of examples:Įxample 1: Miami Dolphins -3 over Minnesota Vikingsįor this game, the sports book has set the Money Line at -180 for Miami and +150 for Minnesota. If you select an underdog, you need to put down less money than you can win. If you select a favorite to win straight up, you need to put down more than you can win. That's why, of course, this bet doesn't pay even money. If this bet paid even money, you would simply pick the favorites each week, win more than 50% of your bets, and retire young. I know what you're thinking - just pick the favorite each time and laugh all the way to the bank! Well, it's not that simple. And there is no juice or vig (although the odds you get have casino profit built in). If the team you pick wins the game outright, you win your bet. Unlike my nfl picks against the spread, for this type of bet, there is no spread. Playing the Money Line is equivalent to picking a team (favorite or underdog) to win the game straight-up. This article will describe the money-line and how it can be used to risk a little and win a lot in the NFL. While seasoned gamblers understand the money line, many sports bettors do not understand this betting option and the huge potential benefits associated with using it. Should you play the NFL moneyline? How profitable can it be? How is the money-line used in baseball? Some answers below. Break-even rates for various moneyline odds. ![]()
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